📣 News and Announcements

Shopify Crushes Revenue Forecast, Accelerates Enterprise and Global Growth

The fine print

Second‑Quarter Performance (Q2 2025):

• Revenue: $2.68 billion, marking a 31% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst estimates of $2.55 billion.

• Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): Rose to $87.84 billion from $67.25 billion a year earlier.

• Earnings per Share (EPS): Reported at $0.35, beating expectations of $0.29.

Forward Guidance & Outlook (Q3 2025):

• Revenue Forecast: Shopify projects mid‑ to high‑twenties percent growth in Q3, above the average analyst estimate of approximately 21.5%.

• Stock Reaction: Shares surged between 16% and 22% in pre-market trading or on the news, reflecting investor confidence.

• Market Impact: Shopify briefly became the most valuable publicly traded company in Canada, overtaking major rivals.

Resilience & Strategic Drivers:

• Despite concerns around trade policy and tariffs, Shopify reported no signs of decreased demand, especially from U.S. merchants—in fact, demand accelerated in Q2.

• AI-enabled tools and platform upgrades—such as website creation, image generation, discount automation, and data aggregation—are credited for boosting merchant adoption and boosting Shopify’s competitive edge.

Shady’s take

Earlier this year, the general consensus was clear: tariffs would bite, inflation would keep pressuring wallets, and consumers would start pulling back. Economists, analysts, and media alike painted 2025 as the year discretionary spending would slow.

But Shopify’s latest earnings tell a very different story. Sales are surging, gross merchandise volume is climbing, and shoppers are still hitting “buy now” at a pace that defies the forecast.

This isn’t just a win for the rising star of Canadian companies; Shopify, it’s a reminder that predictions, even when widely agreed upon, are not guarantees. Markets have a way of humbling forecasters.

The truth is in the data, and right now the data says consumers are more resilient than expected. Businesses that bet on a slowdown early in the year might be kicking themselves while those who stayed aggressive are reaping the rewards.

What can you learn from this

1. Consensus ≠ Certainty
When the majority agrees on an economic outlook, it can feel safe to adjust your plans in line with the forecast. But “everyone agrees” doesn’t make it accurate, markets often go in the opposite direction.

Action: Before making major budget cuts or scaling back, validate big decisions against your own data; sales trends, customer engagement metrics, and conversion rates.

2. Act on Data, Not Just Forecasts
Shopify’s growth underscores the need to look at real-time indicators before reacting to macro chatter. Predictions frame a story, but evidence should guide your moves.

Action: Implement a monthly KPI review, sales velocity, lead pipeline health, cash flow, this helps keep strategy tied to facts instead of sentiment.

3. Resilience Rewards the Prepared
Those who maintained investment in marketing, product development, and customer acquisition despite gloomy headlines are now better positioned to capture persistent demand.

Action: Build contingency plans that let you adjust spend quickly without halting growth initiatives completely.

📣 News and Announcements

Top Amazon Sellers Say TikTok Shop Is the Future of E-Commerce in 2025

The fine print

• Beyond Amazon's limits: Top sellers note that Amazon is increasingly restrictive, making TikTok Shop the “explosive” new frontier full of opportunity. It's viewed by many as today’s equivalent of early Amazon: decentralized, accessible, and rapidly scaling.

• Built-in democratized commerce: TikTok Shop allows anyone to sell, often transforming regular users into sellers and affiliates. That built-in creator-commerce ecosystem is what’s fueling its rapid growth.

• Live selling = New QVC: Livestream shopping represents the next wave of impulse buying. Successful livestreams can generate huge sales—like tens of thousands of dollars in just a few hours—while doubling as real-time customer support.

• Hybrid distribution strategy: Sellers are advised not to rely solely on TikTok Shop—even Amazon still holds value. But a hybrid approach merging Amazon with TikTok can unlock more stable and diversified growth.

• Spotlight on creator-led commerce: Affiliate creators and livestream hosts are central to TikTok’s strategy. Their authenticity and dynamic presence drive conversions faster than static listings.

• Some products may misalign: High-ticket items often struggle on TikTok Shop due to its predominantly price-conscious audience. These may fare better through other channels unless they go viral.

Shady’s take

Forget Amazon fatigue. The biggest shift rattling the e‑commerce landscape in 2025 isn’t just about shipping logistics or price wars, it’s live selling, and TikTok Shop is leading the charge. Veteran sellers like Leo Limin and Eugene Khayman, who cut their teeth on Amazon, are now calling TikTok Shop “explosive” and warning: “If you’re not on TikTok Shop, you are disadvantaged right now.”

Sellers routinely move thousands of items in a matter of hours, and some brands are already using lives as customer support, blending entertainment and utility in real time. The shift is unmistakable: live selling is reshaping how commerce will flow.

What can you learn from this

Leaning exclusively on one platform, especially Amazon, is a risk that’s becoming harder to justify. TikTok Shop’s rapid growth is proof that e-commerce is shifting, and sellers who only play in one arena risk being left behind when algorithms change or competition tightens.

The sellers making the most noise right now aren’t abandoning Amazon, but they’re using TikTok Shop as a second engine, one that’s tapping into a younger, highly engaged audience through formats Amazon simply can’t replicate.

For a business owner, the takeaway is clear: diversify your sales channels before you need to. Start by opening a TikTok Shop storefront and testing the waters with short product videos. Even a few experiments can reveal whether your brand’s voice and products resonate with the platform’s culture. If they do, live selling could become a major revenue stream, and a safety net that insulates you from over-reliance on a single marketplace.